How many more yrs do we have of the Ford Raptor?

[melvimbe]

Everyone is so fixated on cost, maybe skipping some posts but at the end of the day. No one in this space gives 2 Fs about cost. Ya gotta realize this first.

I'll say it again.. the rich(or wealthy) will be the early adopters and we need those people to ensure mass adoption can ever become reasonable. It doesn’t need to be affordable. If there weren't guys like me around to spend 6 figures on a start up electric car company in 2011 with way cheaper money there wouldn't be the more affordable present day models from said company to begin with. In fact, we wouldn't even be talking about the electrification of vehicles beyond the jest that Ford and the rest of the automotive industry have been toying with for decades.

The costs I was looking from a 2018 article stated that a battery with enough juice for an EV would cost around $100k, compared to $3k for lithium ion. That was not at the weight to power ratio you were talking about either. I recognize that that's 4 years old, but cut that in half and it's hard to see $50k battery being much of an option for a production vehicle, even considering the ridiculously wealthy. Certainly a deal breaker for Ford and the Raptor. Not something we could see in the next few years.

Besides, the toys of the rich and famous do not always trickle down to the common man. I mean, the rich could afford a private jet 50 years ago, and I still can't buy one now. Sure, that's not exactly the kind of tech you're referring to, but the point is that there are factors, like limit resources, infrastructure, and scalability that prevent these things from reaching the masses.

Just to let you know.. LG is making a 97" OLED G2 television.. preorder will be about $28k. I bet it will be sold out. I'm just giving perspective to people and how they value tech, in this space the vehicle is almost no longer a car - its tech. And its exciting.

I'll buy it.. and hopefully that will pave the way for you by 2035

Ok.

 

[GordoJay]

I'm sure Google will do you better, to not waste time - here is a fun link.. I didn't even realize Ford was a part of this venture with BMW. What luck.. guess I should have made that wager for the easy money on my end, cuz I can tell you do not have a background in solid state physics. Wikipedia will help ya out, ever heard of it?

BMW to get solid-state battery test cells in early 2022 from Solid Power

BMW joined forces with Ford and announced a massive investment in Solid Power, a company specialized in making solid-state batteries for EVs.

www.bmwblog.com

They're pushing 500 Wh/kg. So your theoretical 200kWh battery weighs 400kg, or 880lb. That's quite a laptop you lug around. You must be a real he-man as well as being so smart and well educated.

 

[grendel]

Solar isn't the answer for generating enough power to support home charging of EVs. Besides greatly increasing the cost of ownership of an EV, the sun doesn't always shine. Really, home solar power, and home energy storage, is separate issue. It's related, but separate.

And that's another issue, the assumption that everyone has a house with a garage they can plug their EVs into. Not an option for apartment/townhomes or homes that have more vehicles that can fit in, or even near, the garage. I mean, haven't to move cars around so that you're teenagers can get out to work/school is one thing, haven't to do that so that all the vehicles have enough charge is just....crappy. Unless you're going to have several 220V cables laying all over your driveway and front lawn.

Sure...it doesn't work for everyone. However, it is absolutely part of the solution. It clearly works for some folks now and, with support, is can be expanded to far more individuals as well. I think it's better to have multiple solutions to the problem.

 

[GordoJay]

Sure...it doesn't work for everyone. However, it is absolutely part of the solution. It clearly works for some folks now and, with support, is can be expanded to far more individuals as well. I think it's better to have multiple solutions to the problem.

In many cases, home storage is the EV. Once VR is usable, no one with a white-collar job will ever need to commute again. Now there are some real savings. Not only can most cars go away, but so can the office building. And when VR and AI get really good, no one will want to go anywhere because real life will suck in comparison. So the EV can stay plugged in, or more likely will be part of a pool of self driving cars that you call on demand and pay for by the mile. Robo-Uber, if you will. Unlike battery chemistry, VR and AI are improving at an exponential rate. Ten years? I can see 80% of the US vehicle fleet going away completely by 2040.

 

[BoostCreep]

In many cases, home storage is the EV. Once VR is usable, no one with a white-collar job will ever need to commute again. Now there are some real savings. Not only can most cars go away, but so can the office building. And when VR and AI get really good, no one will want to go anywhere because real life will suck in comparison. So the EV can stay plugged in, or more likely will be part of a pool of self driving cars that you call on demand and pay for by the mile. Robo-Uber, if you will. Unlike battery chemistry, VR and AI are improving at an exponential rate. Ten years? I can see 80% of the US vehicle fleet going away completely by 2040.

I don’t really want to live in that world to be honest.

 

[pughde]

There are around 160,000 gas stations with an average of 16 pumps, my guess. Now imagine the power needed for each station to service 16 cars. Now if we can get the charging time down to 20 mins, we will still need many more pumps. I just don't see it happening any time soon. Maybe home units could help but again need to produce more electricity.

 

[GordoJay]

I don’t really want to live in that world to be honest.

It sounds horrible. But it will be really compelling. Your best friend is an AI that always says and does the right thing, you're rich, good looking, and get all the beautiful women, life will be interesting and engaging because the AI will cater to you specifically along with all of your kinks. Seriously, people are going to hate and resent every second they spend in the real world. Look at how many people have been captured by their phones. Now multiply that by a thousand. We didn't evolve to handle that.

 

[GordoJay]

There are around 160,000 gas stations with an average of 16 pumps, my guess. Now imagine the power needed for each station to service 16 cars. Now if we can get the charging time down to 20 mins, we will still need many more pumps. I just don't see it happening any time soon. Maybe home units could help but again need to produce more electricity.

If the vast majority of the charging happens at home, overnight, or at the office, during the day, charging stations will only need to handle travelers. We won't need as many "pumps" as you think.

 

[Fireguy144]

That is exactly it. The batteries will be 1/4 of the size in 5 years. They are working on this now. Range will be significantly increased as well.

Do you think this is really better for the environment? Wbats going to power these charging stations? Whats going to happen in summer months when everyone is kicking on the A/C.. Lithium mines are also a sad sight.

 

[BoostCreep]

It sounds horrible. But it will be really compelling. Your best friend is an AI that always says and does the right thing, you're rich, good looking, and get all the beautiful women, life will be interesting and engaging because the AI will cater to you specifically along with all of your kinks. Seriously, people are going to hate and resent every second they spend in the real world. Look at how many people have been captured by their phones. Now multiply that by a thousand. We didn't evolve to handle that.

I get what you’re saying, but none of it is real. I will continue to enjoy our physical world and all of the natural beauty it provides.