Here's the way I see it as a prospective first-time Raptor buyer.
The truck was a high-demand model with limited but "available" production for 5 years. Prices went up a little but not crazy. Then they stopped making them.
After no more were available, more and more people kept wanting them. And as the next 3 years went on, even more and more people wanted them. The worthwhile ones became less and less available, so the prices went up.
A 2013 truck with 20,000 miles in 2014 is probably worth about as much now as it was then, even though it has 60000 miles now. That's why I say they have "gone up". Your choice now, if you want a raptor, is to get a 80k mile 2011 for $39,000 or get a 25k mike 2014 for $53,000.
The only reason the $53,000 truck is worth $53,000 is because it is the best option available.
As soon as you can go in and buy a new reasonably optioned 2017 with 000,014 miles and a full warranty for $52,000, do you think the 3 year old one running out of warranty with even as little as 30,000 miles will be worth MORE?
You've got to be kidding.
As soon as a guy can reasonably go in and buy a 2017 Raptor for MSRP or less, and take delivery within a couple months, the price of this vehicle will be like the price of any other vehicle, go new for $55-65k, or used for $45k MAX.
I'm thinking by June next year this is how the values play out.
2014 with LOW miles, $45k
2014 with 50k miles, $39k
2011 with 90k mikes, $25 to 29k
If I had an older Raptor right now, I'd dump it like a bad habit, then if you love it, but it back again after the market gets its feet back and make $20k, or sell now and add $6k in a year to buy a brand new one.
This is the opposite of what happened to the GTR. Same limited availability, but Nissan kept raising the prices. They started at $65k, then went up over $100k new over the next 5-6 years. The guys who bought them new for $65k have a car that will still sell for $65k because the other option for a prospective buyer is a new one for $105,000.
I was afraid Ford would put the 2017s at about $75,000-95,000, which would probably even RAISE the price of the old ones.
I'm open to other people's thoughts.
I don't think the V8 vs. V6TT is going to be a "thing" for the market. I'm sure a few guys with the older ones will decide the older one is better, but the market will say that the V6 that is newer and gets double the mileage is worth more.