How many more yrs do we have of the Ford Raptor?

[melvimbe]

Well ... I’m kind of with you here, but not entirely. Performance definitely didn’t improve leaving the muscle car era and I do hope that your thought line is correct but I don’t see that being viable. The Lincoln Aviator can give you a glimpse of this. You get some power and a lot of torque, but you gain a whole lot of weight. That’s a redesign from the ground up - different springs with different weights, much need to validate some of the AL components for durability, frame, wheels, tires - all of it.

But you're comparing a muscle car to an Aviator, a completely different market for a different consumer. A better example, might be the base model Mustang going from V6 to 4cyldiner with turbo...and better performance. Or the Raptor itself...going from V8 to TTV6...with better performance. For isnt' going to make hybrid Raptor if it isn't a better Raptor. They made a hybrid F150 because it was a better F150. They made an EV F150 a separate Lightning as it's not exactly a better F150, it's a different F150.

So I guess I'm saying that if Ford can't make a hybrid or EV Raptor that's better than an ICE Raptor, I don't think they will do that. Instead, they will make a more off-road capable Lightning, or making an EV tremor/rattler, or something entirely different.

Now an actual Super Duty, where weight wouldn’t be so much of a concern? maybe. Then you lose crap tons of range.

A hybrid Super Duty seems likely in the next couple years. An EV Super Duty would be a few years after at best, I think.

True. The activist and activist class on the left are ‘emotional’ thinkers and arguers. Those on the right are ‘fact based’ thinkers and arguers. Each argue and think to the extreme of this concept to the point of exclusivity and it usually ends in a pretty lofty disagreement that doesn’t get resolved.

I don't think that's true. The left tends to paint the right as having an extreme point of view so that's easier to knock down, and their point of view isn't looked at as closely. This is why they claim the Florida law against instructing K-3 graders about gender dysphoria and ****** orientation is "Don't say Gay" even though that's not what it is. They need it to appear unreasonable, and don't want people to understand that they want to tell kindergartners that a boy who wants to play house with the girls should consider cutting off his manhood.

Out of the gate, the left’s strategy is more successful. Most people are sympathetic to emotional pleas and arguments. “GTTXRAP, if we can save just ONE LIFE, wouldn’t you want to do that?” - of course, it could be your life after all, but it’s always a loaded question. The right’s strategy is more typically numbers, percentages and ‘fact’ based “GTTXRAP, we can achieve a 30% reduction in crime by ensuring cars aren’t parked on the street and in driveways, so can we count on your support for a law to ban street parking?"
The right’s strategy is a better defensive one, and not good for offense.

Eh. The left strategy requires left thought and understanding. It appeals to the lazy. It also tends to avoid conflict...just going along with us and you won't have any trouble. And of course, the problem is someone elses fault, not your own.

EVs, if done smartly, could render OPEC irrelevant. If you’re an American who lived through the early 70’s embargo, you likely want this. I for one definitely want to see us not beholden to OPEC and being able to send them the “Boston Hello” at some point in the future.

We don't need EVs to render OPEC irrelevant, we need to produce our own energy. EVs and renewables can be a part of that, but they can not be the primary part of the plan.

I would also argue that more focus on efficiency rather than elimination. I mean, you can cut your gas cost in half when you put two people in the vehicle. If you don't use any gas or power at all if you work from home. Why doesn't the US government give tax breaks to companies and employees that work from home? Because it's helps the middle class mostly, not the army of lower class voters.

 

[GordoJay]

EVs, if done smartly, could render OPEC irrelevant. If you’re an American who lived through the early 70’s embargo, you likely want this. I for one definitely want to see us not beholden to OPEC and being able to send them the “Boston Hello” at some point in the future.

Nuclear power plus EVs for the masses. And when the only remaining exemption is for agriculture, I'll be buying a ranch. In reality, by the time all of the infrastructure is built, I'll be dead. So I'm going to sit back and enjoy the show.

 

[melvimbe]

Tech for batteries will only advance, as solid state becomes readily available and accessible the weight will come down dramatically. Beyond that though, the Lightning is less than a 1000lbs heavier as is with its 130kwh pack. Less than the 200kwh in the Hummer but it's not just the battery contributing to the weight of the new Hummer EV either.

Considering the capabilities of the R1T I'm not concerned with this at all. As the tech advances, we'll see what I want to see, it's almost a forgone conclusion of when vs if.

There are limits in physics though. I'm not a expert, but the power to weight ration of gasoline to batteries is still not even remotely in the same ballpark as I understand it. Battery's advantage is you can remove many arts needed for ICE, but it obviously still doesn't make up the difference.

But the idea that we are going to be able to continually make more power dense batteries over time, when we don't know exactly how that's going to happen, is far from guaranteed. It's very different from something like wireless communications, where the physics to do it (radio waves) has been understood for a century now. We're just waiting for the technology and infrastructure to improve around it.

 

[GordoJay]

I would also argue that more focus on efficiency rather than elimination. I mean, you can cut your gas cost in half when you put two people in the vehicle. If you don't use any gas or power at all if you work from home. Why doesn't the US government give tax breaks to companies and employees that work from home? Because it's helps the middle class mostly, not the army of lower class voters.

What happens to the lower classes when EVs are mandated? "OK, everybody buy a new car. And BTW, there's no market for your old one, so just scrap it." I know, I know. If you check certain boxes, the gummint will give you a new car. Votes keep getting more and more expensive.

 

[GordoJay]

But the idea that we are going to be able to continually make more power dense batteries over time, when we don't know exactly how that's going to happen, is far from guaranteed. It's very different from something like wireless communications, where the physics to do it (radio waves) has been understood for a century now. We're just waiting for the technology and infrastructure to improve around it.

Many folks think that because EVs are electric, that they'll improve in accordance with Moore's Law, like computers. The problem is that batteries aren't electronic, they're chemistry. And the rate of improvement in chemistry isn't nearly as fast.

 

[melvimbe]

What happens to the lower classes when EVs are mandated? "OK, everybody buy a new car. And BTW, there's no market for your old one, so just scrap it." I know, I know. If you check certain boxes, the gummint will give you a new car. Votes keep getting more and more expensive.

You're thinking like a righty. You're supposed to compartmentalize issues, look at income inequality and climate change as if they exist in entirely different universes...not all part of the same reality. Doing something 'good' for one problem never causes other problems. Those other problems are still someone else fault.

 

[melvimbe]

Many folks think that because EVs are electric, that they'll improve in accordance with Moore's Law, like computers. The problem is that batteries aren't electronic, they're chemistry. And the rate of improvement in chemistry isn't nearly as fast.

Exactly. The physics was already there to get better and better performance out of semiconductors (or whatever it is). The limitation was the tech and infrastructure to get it done. And part of the reason why computers of yesterday are slower than today is because they were as fast as the market needed them to be. With batteries, we absolutely need them to have a better power/weight ratio. It's not like consumers are unwilling to may an extra $10k for 600 mile range and/or full charging in 10 minutes. If it could be done, it would be.

 

[smurfslayer]

The left tends to paint the right as having an extreme point of view so that's easier to knock down, and their point of view isn't looked at as closely.

The right does the same thing to the left. They go about it in strikingly similar ways but again the right tends to argue from fact or fact based positions (whether those facts are true or not) where the left tends to make emotional pleas and shrill cries.
It works. Look at Virginia. That political pendulum is swinging, but not as far as the right wants people to think.

VA was a fairly solid red state from the 90’s until about the late 2000’s to 2010’s (twenty teens - whatever). Then it was a hard left victory but the signs were already there. The state was overrun with NY and NJ refugees, not to mention NoVA is a sanctuary area.

The right is charged that they took the House and governor’s office - as well as Lt. Gov, and AG. Lt. Gov., if you don’t know - I believe Jamaican immigrant, USMC vet., absolutely no BS tolerated. Respect.

But that election was a major issue election, a post covid mini-revolt if you will as parents rebelled against the school board commissars and forced woke agenda. Next cycle there shouldn’t be any of that and the sheer numbers will begin to overtake the right’s victories.

We don't need EVs to render OPEC irrelevant, we need to produce our own energy. EVs and renewables can be a part of that, but they can not be the primary part of the plan.

True, and I agree they should not be a lynch pin or primary part. Honestly, I don’t know if that’s even something we should have, but rather electric vehicle power could be a part of a plan to develop, roll out and make work, along with fuel cell tech, and whatever else we can come up with. Electric seems closer, but I could go with CNG, I’m not really partial to how I propel the vehicle, I’m more concerned with being able to propel it quickly ;-)

I would also argue that more focus on efficiency rather than elimination. I mean, you can cut your gas cost in half when you put two people in the vehicle. If you don't use any gas or power at all if you work from home. Why doesn't the US government give tax breaks to companies and employees that work from home? Because it's helps the middle class mostly, not the army of lower class voters.

We part ways here.
I am not sharing my ride with anyone. Proud to be HOV negative. And you (the general you) won’t mandate me doing it.
I don’t want tiny, Fiat Punto-esque shoe boxes to drive either.
Also, I’d counter that if you (again the general you) can afford to give tax breaks, credits of discounts for “favored” people, instead, you should just lower the rate for every person.

 

[GordoJay]

You're thinking like a righty. You're supposed to compartmentalize issues, look at income inequality and climate change as if they exist in entirely different universes...not all part of the same reality. Doing something 'good' for one problem never causes other problems. Those other problems are still someone else fault.

I'm an engineer. I hate both parties. I do find the right more comprehensible. The left acts as though human motivation doesn't exist. That never works in a society made up of humans.

 

[BalorGrayJax]

There are limits in physics though. I'm not a expert, but the power to weight ration of gasoline to batteries is still not even remotely in the same ballpark as I understand it. Battery's advantage is you can remove many arts needed for ICE, but it obviously still doesn't make up the difference.

But the idea that we are going to be able to continually make more power dense batteries over time, when we don't know exactly how that's going to happen, is far from guaranteed. It's very different from something like wireless communications, where the physics to do it (radio waves) has been understood for a century now. We're just waiting for the technology and infrastructure to improve around it.

Yea, but eventually with solid state you'll have a battery with the power of a 200kwh hummer ev in the size and weight of a laptop battery. So power to weight is going to be insane in the future.. that's obviously not now.. but it's coming.