MSRP is the Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Price (duh). Although we'd ideally like to think of it as the actual value/price of the vehicle, it rarely is. Supply and demand, both change over time and geographic location, means that the value/price can swing rather widely. So no, paying ADM doesn't necessarily mean you're losing money if the actual value is higher than MSRP. Heck, just saw someone post their Raptor for sale at a price about $15k above MSRP. I don't know what they paid for it, but certainly seems possible that they aren't losing money on the deal.
That's not to say that prices won't go down if buyer's collude and agree not to pay above a certain price, arbitrarily MSRP for example. You're controlling the market by controlling demand. It's not much different than if all the dealers decided they would not sell below $20k ADM....controlling supply essentially.
But anyway, IMO, I don't think it's really the best strategy to pay that much attention to MSPR. Pay attention to what the trucks are going for, whether above or below MSRP. Pay attention to how you think prices will change in the short term and whether it makes sense to wait a little bit. Pay attention to how well it hold value. Maybe most importantly, what's it worth to you? Doesn't matter if you get a good deal or your money is better spent elsewhere and you're not interested in a quick profit by flipping it.