Predictions on how long over MSRP pricing will continue?

[Lupa]

2 questions.
How much longer will this crazy dealership pricing continue?

When it does return to the days when deals at invoice or less can be found, what will the economic cause(s) be?

I personally believe it will happen in 2023 and it will be caused by continuing interest rate increases, deepening recession and a stock market that falls into a much worse bear market brought about by rising interest rates that finally have the intended effect of cooling the economy. IMHO

 

[DFS]

I don't think we will see MSRP or under as the norm in 2023 only because there's so many outstanding orders still that Ford has yet to fulfill. I do think $5k ADM and MSRP will become much more normal though. The demand is still just through the roof and supply is still falling flat on it's face.

 

[racebannon]

Just spoke to the GM of my local dealer asking when my 2023 will arrive. Convo shifted to raptor R availability. He told me another dealer offered him an R for 60k over sticker. The cost to the DEALER is $169,000 lol. Buckle in for ADM through 2023 into 2024 unless there’s a real global financial collapse.

 

[BarryT82]

Used vehicle value is dropping, but as long as people are willing to pay MSRP or more the dealerships will keep asking for it.

 

[thatJeepguy]

We will be in a complete different market in 2-3 months.

 

[Lupa]

Unless the stock market completely crashes interest rates are going to continue to climb (probably .5% per month), credit utilization is climbing and consumers are beginning to fall behind on revolving credit payments with defaults increasing. I believe the price declines are much closer than everyone thinks. I'm seriously thinking about selling my 2020 gen 2 now while I can still get a lot for it and then wait until I can ordera gen 3 around invoice. Worst case and I can't believe I am saying this, I have a ram dealer friend that will give a good price on a TRX.

 

[Keith88]

Unless the stock market completely crashes interest rates are going to continue to climb (probably .5% per month), credit utilization is climbing and consumers are beginning to fall behind on revolving credit payments with defaults increasing. I believe the price declines are much closer than everyone thinks. I'm seriously thinking about selling my 2020 gen 2 now while I can still get a lot for it and then wait until I can ordera gen 3 around invoice. Worst case and I can't believe I am saying this, I have a ram dealer friend that will give a good price on a TRX.

you are right on the money... no pun intended. the crash that is going to happen next year will make 2008-2010 seem like a walk in the park... this next recession will be a kick in the nuts for the people of the middle n upper middle class living above their means.

 

[GCATX]

If we assume that hyper-inflation is coming, a Raptor at current MSRP would be a steal. LOL. Right now, it's only one wheel barrel of cash for a Raptor.

 

[2020FordRaptor]

2 questions.
How much longer will this crazy dealership pricing continue?

When it does return to the days when deals at invoice or less can be found, what will the economic cause(s) be?

I personally believe it will happen in 2023 and it will be caused by continuing interest rate increases, deepening recession and a stock market that falls into a much worse bear market brought about by rising interest rates that finally have the intended effect of cooling the economy. IMHO

We were looking at an Expie with a 7500 markup, and the dealer immediately said they'd take A Plan, so I think that thus is over, but it will depend by dealer.

 

[Lupa]

@NickyF25 I agree slow production is the driver of pricing above MSRP. Too many dollars chasing too few goods. The Fed IS going to cool this economy, but our government keeps adding stimulus so this isn't going to end well. But good Americans that did not over extend themselves may well find themselves in a buyers market real soon.