Gen 2 Raptor Prices vs Pending Gen 3 Raptor?

[MarkM98]

Now that the Gen 3 Raptor has been introduced will any of the Gen 2 Raptors that are priced over sticker still sell at that price point? Minus all of the Shelby, Hennessy, and other modified 3rd party Raptors, I still see enough 2019/2020 Raptors that are being asked for $80,000 or more for a stock truck. The 2 places that are close to me with the high asking prices are located in smaller towns. I think they have had them for a little while now but the one thing I don’t understand is how can dealers have vehicles like this sit on the lot or showroom for months at a time? Isn’t there a point of time where it would cost the dealer money in taxes for inventory?

Anyways with the Gen 3 wouldn’t guys holdout for the new truck rather than pay a high price for the older model? I with Ford still to release the pricing tiers for Gen 3 Raptor, I still think it’s not going to be too far off the 2020 Raptor. We will see some dealers mark-up the 2021 Gen 3 no doubt. What does everyone else feel on this?

 

[smurfslayer]

I still see enough 2019/2020 Raptors that are being asked for $80,000 or more for a stock truck. The 2 places that are close to me with the high asking prices are located in smaller towns. I think they have had them for a little while now but the one thing I don’t understand is how can dealers have vehicles like this sit on the lot or showroom for months at a time? Isn’t there a point of time where it would cost the dealer money in taxes for inventory?

At the height of the Gen2 craze, early 2017, even though Ford planned to make several times more than the Jennifer numbers, some stealerships were purchasing Raptors from other stealerships and allegedly trying to sell them in their market. Literally translated: Stealer 1 knows stealer 2 has a Rap, and is not likely to sell in their coal mining town. they talk, and stealer 2 agrees to sell to stealer 1 for let’s say, 5k over invoice. Stealer 1 now advertises the truck for MSRP + 15k.

If you do a search on “ADM” you’ll find people on FRF who admit to paying over MSRP, some paying a rather princely sum over. Some stealers bought late and have been left holding the bag on a truck that’s worth about 65k tops, but they’ve paid $66k for it so they’re desperately holding out to get bids. There’s also the halo effect; drawing truck shoppers in who know they aren’t getting a Raptor but maybe look at FX4’s or now Tremors instead but the Rap draws them in. Or maybe the sales mangler has a deal with the owner that if the truck doesn’t sell for xx months, he gets it at cost.

Who knows what goes through some of these peoples minds.

 

[realjones88]

gen 3 ADMs will likely continue through the second year of production like gen 2. Stock market is all time high, not much to spend money on for many, production is way down due to COVID. Add those up and you get expensive trucks. Trucks on dealer lots are financed so monthly inventory cost isn't terrible especially if they can park it in the showroom for months and make $10K more.

Gen 2 screws will hold value as availability of new trucks is near zero for a while. Supercabs will hold value very well until (if) Ford ever makes more again. I see leftover gen 2s eventually coming down to MSRP, but as for "deals," what's the catalyst for any seller to make one?

 

[Frank N]

How long ADM is in play I think will be directly tied to how many Ford is building, the run will be short for the 21MY, into 22, then the market will dry up for ADM payers, then the "R", that will ADM, but again, production numbers? Unknown. Rare? Like GT500?

I'm running my Gen 2 for another 3 years or so, ADM will be gone and I hope Avalanche Gray is back....or Terrain!!!!

I'll V8 it if the price is right....but I can see the initial R's with 25k+ADM, FTS.

Another question is what happens if the R is separate allocation...then the ADM on them may never end.

 

[melvimbe]

There's just a ton of unknowns right now. We don't know what Gen 3 pricing is going to be or what sort of availability it's going to have. I think you also have to factor in Broncos, since that's going to bring in a lot of people to the dealership. It seems reasonable that people will come in looking to get a 2021 new model, get sticker shot from ADM and lack of availability, then decide they don't want to wait and opt for a Gen 2 at/near MSRP.

 

[Badgertits]

There's just a ton of unknowns right now. We don't know what Gen 3 pricing is going to be or what sort of availability it's going to have. I think you also have to factor in Broncos, since that's going to bring in a lot of people to the dealership. It seems reasonable that people will come in looking to get a 2021 new model, get sticker shot from ADM and lack of availability, then decide they don't want to wait and opt for a Gen 2 at/near MSRP.

bronco is a good point particularly for Ford fanboys who actually offroad w/ their raptor & treat it more like a toy/tool than a DD- bronco can probably do a lot of raptor stuff better than the raptor for a myriad of reasons

The gen3 msrp will start higher as it seems theyre going without a true base 800a version- but my $$$ would be on the msrp ultimately not being more than a few grand over the gen 2 (not including the “R” version) - they don’t have to gouge buyers on the thing too badly- the loaded up lariat/king ranch etc F150s & the tremor package will help pad their wallets nicely & pay back the R&D for the F150 redesign quickly I think. Looks like Ford will have the best & newest truck lineup out for at least a couple years.

the Raptor R will be the real premium price

the regular ones....I’m sure volume @ $70k will make up for no $80k sticker

 

[smurfslayer]

Ford has to keep the gen3 cost controlled due to the TRX being actually available. It will largely depend on how much of an improvement we see. If we are only seeing +20 hp, MSRP will be a lot closer to Gen 2. If it’s a significant hp boost then I’d expect mid to high 70’s.

I’m not sure as many dealers will be playing the ADM games on a truck that isn’t uncontested any more. Who’s willing to pay $76k + $10k mark up - for that, they may as well go get a TRX and pay that mark up.

I suppose we’ll see by about ... October - November.
Did someone say Ramp 59?

 

[KAH 24]

It depends—on production numbers planned for the Gen 3 and Raptor R

If the Gen 3 has nice boost in production numbers vs. Gen 1-2 (good idea to me, so that a loaded Gen 3 costs less than a stripped TRX)—this should impact used Gen 2 resale prices which are insane.

A good trade-off could be limited production of the Raptor R as a “halo” truck (to price a loaded Raptor R slightly above a loaded TRX).

Much respect and credit to Ford as they’ve done a consistently amazing job of managing production numbers for Gen 1 & Gen 2. This is something far harder to do than one could imagine.

From professional experience, I’ll say that EVERY OEM is duly impressed as they try to find the sweet spot for certain high-end “image” vehicles in the lineup (not so much elsewhere). One of my senior colleagues is accountable for these processes—and when in meetings, I don’t understand some of his team’s presentations (just as he doesn’t understand many of mine).

NO ONE knows what will happen to Gen 2 resale for quite some time. Rack up the miles and enjoy the Raptor however you choose. To me, it’s fun to commute in, our kids love driving it— and I enjoy the good nature jabs from my team who mostly drive our brand. Damn the resale I say!

 

[KAH 24]

Ford has to keep the gen3 cost controlled due to the TRX being actually available. It will largely depend on how much of an improvement we see. If we are only seeing +20 hp, MSRP will be a lot closer to Gen 2. If it’s a significant hp boost then I’d expect mid to high 70’s.

I’m not sure as many dealers will be playing the ADM games on a truck that isn’t uncontested any more. Who’s willing to pay $76k + $10k mark up - for that, they may as well go get a TRX and pay that mark up.

I suppose we’ll see by about ... October - November.
Did someone say Ramp 59?

@smurfslayer I agree with you. Ford has demonstrated mastery in this process and all OEM eyes including our smart folks are on them as well.

It isn’t the how to do it that is skillful (basic economics)—its the execution and seeing it play out for over a decade. FoMoCo, tip of the hat.

 

[saym14]

It’s all just speculation