I agree with everything you indicated, but property values have to level off after interest rates climb……less people can afford to buy. I am on Zillow everyday thinking about picking up a rental. This is the first time since 1991 I haven’t been heavily invested in property, or stocks, but there comes a time to stop building wealth to spend it, not sure I’m there yet, but maybe. Also, with a rental a positive return does not immediately occur, all purchase expenses must be realized before a positive cash flow starts. Back to Zillow!
Assuming interest rates rise, which they should, my thoughts are that if rates going up can slow inflation, you might be right. If they can't appreciably slow inflation, what I believe given Brandon's helicopter money BS, then home values will continue to rise along with rents.
Granted, in my area there is a severe shortage of single family homes, and they won't catch up for several years, or the foreseeable future. In 2008 while much of the real estate markets in the country took a big hit, we just went flat for a couple years. And I think the home loan rates were probably 7-9%, just guessing.
In general, I think having a pile of money in the bank is risky right now. Not that it will go away, but it's worth less and less every month. There is no denying that.
But, everyone's financial situation is different, you sound like your are pretty set. I feel like I'm still on the road, just decided I'm okay with a little more risk with everything so volitile. If things truly crash to the bottom, we'll all be in the same boat anyway. You know, the boat that all our guns fell out of.