melvimbe
FRF Addict
Playing a little bit of devil's advocate here, Toyota's statement regarding the viability of going full EV by 2035 is assuming several constants about the current US transportation system remain unchanged. Primarily, that people move about with the same frequency and that every adult has a vehicle. Both of those are things that could change, or be forced to change, in the future.
As far as the frequency that people move, many jobs now allow you to work from home. Additionally, there is a growing delivery market for just about any product, food or otherwise, that you may want. A car used to be a necessity to live in suburban areas, it is much less so today.
Given the above, you still need a vehicle if you have job that you can't do from home, or just to leave the house. Well, not necessarily with the growing Uber/Lyft market. If self driving cars become a reality, then renting a vehicle, or paying by the trip makes even more sense. Looking at the cost of owning a vehicle, when you factor in car payment, insurance, and maintenance, how many Uber rides per month is the break even point?
Given those two factors, it's possible that we could end up with less vehicles on the road, rather than more. If not less vehicles on the road, less vehicles overall since we wouldn't need as many vehicles sitting in driveways ready to use. That could put a bit less burden on the charging infrastructure and electric grid.
Again, not saying I'm in favor of this (I'm not), just pointing out that there is a lot of different trends going on at the same time that interact with each other, makings predictions more or less likely. Mostly, I'm just saying that any ambitious goal that is 10 years out or more often meaningless, particularly when stated by a company, who's primary goal will always be profit above all else. The only thing GM can really say about 2035 is that they will be profitable, or they will no longer exist.
As far as the frequency that people move, many jobs now allow you to work from home. Additionally, there is a growing delivery market for just about any product, food or otherwise, that you may want. A car used to be a necessity to live in suburban areas, it is much less so today.
Given the above, you still need a vehicle if you have job that you can't do from home, or just to leave the house. Well, not necessarily with the growing Uber/Lyft market. If self driving cars become a reality, then renting a vehicle, or paying by the trip makes even more sense. Looking at the cost of owning a vehicle, when you factor in car payment, insurance, and maintenance, how many Uber rides per month is the break even point?
Given those two factors, it's possible that we could end up with less vehicles on the road, rather than more. If not less vehicles on the road, less vehicles overall since we wouldn't need as many vehicles sitting in driveways ready to use. That could put a bit less burden on the charging infrastructure and electric grid.
Again, not saying I'm in favor of this (I'm not), just pointing out that there is a lot of different trends going on at the same time that interact with each other, makings predictions more or less likely. Mostly, I'm just saying that any ambitious goal that is 10 years out or more often meaningless, particularly when stated by a company, who's primary goal will always be profit above all else. The only thing GM can really say about 2035 is that they will be profitable, or they will no longer exist.
