Prediction: Raptor R ends up casualty of Ukraine/Russia war…

[Grayson]

I am so grateful to my father. He taught us very early on about money, interest, and leverage. No allowance, ever. But we got paid for working if it was above and beyond our normal household chores. All of his children are quite well off, even those not following lucrative careers. He wasn't against borrowing, quite the contrary, but he would always say "Leverage works both ways." and the idea of borrowing to finance a depreciating asset never crossed his mind. Now that I'm reminiscing, what he used to say about that is "You can work for yourself or you can work for the bank."

Your father sounds like a smart man. I am dealing with this issue with my 4 year old daughter which in turn becomes wife & in-laws vs me when it comes to excessive giving & gifting. She completes small tasks mainly picking up her toys along with small organization around the house with her mother or I. I give her my pocket change every day that she puts in her piggy bank.

My 4 year old and my "in production" daughter won't receive participation trophies.

 

[WKUSMC]

…Biden will continue to refuse to increase Oil production in USA, insist on higher Fuel economy standards, and gas prices will soar into the $5 to $7+ range for 87 octane…Ford will decide the business case is no longer there (even if it’s ready for production), due to current economic conditions and kill/postpone the Raptor R project.

So…if you were planning on holding out for a Gen3, until they released & started taking orders for the Raptor R…you might miss out on a Gen3 altogether.

Also…heard a rumor that, even if they did put the Raptor R into production…they may run the orders like they did for the Ford GT supercar, by invite ONLY…which disqualifies most people right out of the gate.

Either way…I wouldn’t get my hopes up.

Just my .02

Think it was .01

 

[grendel]

…Biden will continue to refuse to increase Oil production in USA, insist on higher Fuel economy standards, and gas prices will soar into the $5 to $7+ range for 87 octane…Ford will decide the business case is no longer there (even if it’s ready for production), due to current economic conditions and kill/postpone the Raptor R project.

The US is (and has been for over a decade) the #1 exporter of refined petroleum products in the world! What is more oil going to do? Why would private oil companies sell refined products in the US when the profit is larger selling overseas? "Moar oil production!" and expansion of drilling doesn't do shit. Even if additional drilling is opened up, you're looking at several years before it impacts the market.

And the Raptor R will sell out in a second. I'll take yours and anyone else who worries about the price of gasoline.

EDIT: A far larger impact on the price of refined products like gasoline is global supply and production. And anything the the short term (i.e. 1 year or less) will only be done with by expanding existing sources (with limited ability) or a decrease in demand. Nothing else will move the needle (significantly or for any real duration).

 

[grendel]

…Biden will continue to refuse to increase Oil production in USA,

Where do people get this? That statement is 100% false. Biden has approved more oil drilling in the United States in his first year in office than Trump did in his first, second or third years. Trump is slightly ahead in his 4th then where Biden is in year one. Pure, 100% nonsense.

 

[GordoJay]

The US is (and has been for over a decade) the #1 exporter of refined petroleum products in the world!

What about unrefined product? That's what matters. These guys have the US at #7 ...

The World's 10 Biggest Oil Exporters

Discover the size of the global oil export market and its contribution to global GDP. Learn more about the biggest oil exporters in the world today.

www.investopedia.com

 

[GordoJay]

Where do people get this? That statement is 100% false. Biden has approved more oil drilling in the United States in his first year in office than Trump did in his first, second or third years. Trump is slightly ahead in his 4th then where Biden is in year one. Pure, 100% nonsense.

Please show your source for this. It is the internet, after all.

 

[grendel]

What about unrefined product? That's what matters. These guys have the US at #7 ...

The World's 10 Biggest Oil Exporters

Discover the size of the global oil export market and its contribution to global GDP. Learn more about the biggest oil exporters in the world today.

www.investopedia.com

That's a good point, but we're talking about gasoline prices. Gasoline is a refined product. Hence, my focus there. The US has huge refining capability and, as such, imports petroleum. To comlpicte it more, it's not a zero sum game. For example, in 2018 when the US because a net exporter of crude, we exported 7.5Mbpd and imported 10.5Mbpd (3Q numbers). So, looking at pure exportation/importation of crude oil / petroleum doesn't do much for you. SO...when people talk about expanding petroleum capacity with the idea that it will lower gasoline prices, there is exactly zero correlation until you start looking at the global supply and demand. It's usually just political theater.

EDIT: I should have added that we are still a next EXPORTER of petroleum. We sell more of it abroad. We aren't seeing it all domestically. Hence, if we add capacity and there is still a larger global demand, all we will do is export more of it. It doesn't turn into domestic refined product. It will still get sold abroad. Bottom line: Until it is more profitable to refine US crude into gasoline and sell that gasoline to US customers, adding capacity does nothing ('nothing' isn't technically correct - but nothing we will significantly notice).

 

[R3G]

100% Biden wants to increase gas prices to try and force people to buy expensive electric (green) cars few people want and are still charged via fossil fuel powerplants (not “green”) so stepford Bidens remarks today are all entirely false. This whole situation in Ukraine reeks of being a manufactured crises to take focus off whats happening in the U.S. How many people will believe Putin is the boogeyman? IDK, who knows, we definitely don’t have the full story and I wouldn't say Russia has our best interests in mind either tho and certainly the people of Ukraine are impacted, just like the people of Iraq were impacted when US invaded in grounds that have now been proven 100% false.

 

[grendel]

Please show your source for this. It is the internet, after all.

Always a good idea.

Raw data here: https://reports.blm.gov/report/AFMSS/81/Approved-APDs-Report-Federal

I've attached a spreadsheet with Year One analysis for both administrations.

Alternatively, Google the following words and pick any news source you prefer: "oil permits biden trump"

There are sources for any flavor. A few select ones:

Biden Approves Hundreds More Drilling Permits Than Trump

The American Petroleum Institute blames environmental protections on high energy prices, while Biden gives Big Oil more drilling permits.

www.accountable.us

Biden Promised To End New Drilling On Federal Land, But Approvals Are Up

New permits for companies to extract oil and gas from U.S. public lands are on pace to hit their highest level since George W. Bush was in office, undermining the president's ambitious climate goals.

www.npr.org

https://www.citizen.org/wp-content/uploads/bidenoil-final.pdf

 

[smurfslayer]

So, no pun intended, but if we drill down on the permits approved or are currently underway, how many of the 2020+ permits approved are worth pursing? That is, they would be profitable to send in crews, drill baby drill, etc. and push it to market? Or, are the permit holders looking at things with a jaundiced eye towards undertaking something that just wouldn’t bear much profit margin?

I note also that the partisan defenders of Biden are now out in force - literally every audio, video and internet outlet offering the very same talking point; that Biden’s regime has “9000 approved permits” waiting for companies to use. That’s clueful information. Not what’s being said, but how often it’s being repeated and by who.

What does the regime benefit if we believe this?
What do you want to bet there is more to this data set?

Trump gets a lot of $hit for being fast and loose with the truth a liar, but Biden is equally untruthful if not more so.

So truthfully there is no stroke of the pen relief to an oil crisis, regardless of who’s heading the executive branch. But, there is a definite effect in dissuading companies from pursuing leases in the first place, and there’s definitely an impact to the very public positions the current regime has undertaken.

Is it Biden’s FAULT for high oil prices? It’s not Putin’s fault, no way, no how. Biden lit the match, and his henchmen fanned the flames pushing prices higher and higher since day one. An all too willing Congress went along for the ride. There’s little excuse, he’s got varsity handlers. Not as good as ‘bama’s handlers, but very good, astute political operators; He -IS- the sitting president and all the howling about fraud notwithstanding, he had more votes in the electoral college, period. maybe not 81m, but enough to win in every conceivable twist of the outcome. So his staff should be acting as the adults in the room, but apparently they’re content just egging the old coot on. Not good for oil prices and foreshadows very bad things for current international relations.

There is more to it than open, outstanding permits to drill not being operated on.