melvimbe
FRF Addict
MSRP is just a number. Ford and everyone else sets the price, usually based on what the expected market value is. When that happens, then yes, ADM is over market value and you'd be overpaying. But it's pretty clear that MSRP does not represent market value right now...it's way under. The only reason MSRP isn't rising as fast as inflation would dictate is to avoid the appearance of corporate greed.
We know that MSRP will go up for the next few years. We know that interest rates are going to rise in the next few years. We know that used car values will like go up with inflation and as long as new car supplies are low. Taxes aren't going to change.
I don't really think 5k or even 10k ADM is really that bad of a deal, particularly if your financing. You are going to pay the same price 2 years from now with a worse interest rate, most likely. If you are paying cash, then you're losing money if you don't have it invested in something that does better than the inflation rate. The biggest question really is what resale value of the truck would be, and it looks like trucks are going to hold their value pretty good. They will go down as new vehicle supply returns, but not below what they where before, perhaps better. I think a lot of folks will be content to drive used rather than new considering the higher prices they haven't adjusted too yet.
So, I get the distaste for ADM in a normal market where it means you're paying above market value. But this isn't a normal market, I'd say MSRP is below market by $5-10k. So if you can get MSRP, you're getting a great deal. If you're paying a bit over MSRP, you're getting a fair deal. Above that and you're overpaying.
I'm not buying a Raptor right now, because I don't need one. I don't have a ton of hope that the market will get better, at least not until the end of the Gen 3 cycle, when dealers might be looking to clear inventory. I'm thinking I might just skip Gen3 entirely, but Gen 4 will not be good prices for a long time. It's too far out for me to tell what sort of vehicle I'll want then.
We know that MSRP will go up for the next few years. We know that interest rates are going to rise in the next few years. We know that used car values will like go up with inflation and as long as new car supplies are low. Taxes aren't going to change.
I don't really think 5k or even 10k ADM is really that bad of a deal, particularly if your financing. You are going to pay the same price 2 years from now with a worse interest rate, most likely. If you are paying cash, then you're losing money if you don't have it invested in something that does better than the inflation rate. The biggest question really is what resale value of the truck would be, and it looks like trucks are going to hold their value pretty good. They will go down as new vehicle supply returns, but not below what they where before, perhaps better. I think a lot of folks will be content to drive used rather than new considering the higher prices they haven't adjusted too yet.
So, I get the distaste for ADM in a normal market where it means you're paying above market value. But this isn't a normal market, I'd say MSRP is below market by $5-10k. So if you can get MSRP, you're getting a great deal. If you're paying a bit over MSRP, you're getting a fair deal. Above that and you're overpaying.
I'm not buying a Raptor right now, because I don't need one. I don't have a ton of hope that the market will get better, at least not until the end of the Gen 3 cycle, when dealers might be looking to clear inventory. I'm thinking I might just skip Gen3 entirely, but Gen 4 will not be good prices for a long time. It's too far out for me to tell what sort of vehicle I'll want then.
