Anyone else thinking EV swap?

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GordoJay

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Fords first V8, the flathead ony made 65hp. I expect EV's to make giant leaps fast.
Expect disappointment. Electric motors have been around since the 1820s and were first put to use in a tool in the 1830s. It wasn't until the 1870s that a useful internal combustion engine was developed. We've been optimizing electric motors longer than internal combustion. On top of that, there's a lot less room to use computer control to improve electric motors the way we've done with gas engines over the last twenty or thirty years. The big hope really, is a clean efficient recyclable battery. But that's chemistry, not electronics, and we've been working on that for even longer. What I really expect to happen is that virtual reality and AI will get so good that no one ever wants to leave home again.
 

melvimbe

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Expect disappointment. Electric motors have been around since the 1820s and were first put to use in a tool in the 1830s. It wasn't until the 1870s that a useful internal combustion engine was developed. We've been optimizing electric motors longer than internal combustion. On top of that, there's a lot less room to use computer control to improve electric motors the way we've done with gas engines over the last twenty or thirty years. The big hope really, is a clean efficient recyclable battery. But that's chemistry, not electronics, and we've been working on that for even longer. What I really expect to happen is that virtual reality and AI will get so good that no one ever wants to leave home again.

I expect that we'll make some improvements with batteries, but not to the point where it matches the power density of fuel. About 10 years from now, medias and those on the far left will turn on the EV market and start yelling about all the damage mining causes and all that. Some of the people who think the world is going to end will realize that the world has not ended after all...but the younger generation will believe them to be old fools.

As for virtual reality, we won't need it. People will be happy to accept a life lived virtually without a need for that virtual existence to have any resemblance to reality. I'm not sure AI is really needed either as their are already millions of people that are artificially intelligent to fill that roll.
 

GordoJay

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As for virtual reality, we won't need it. People will be happy to accept a life lived virtually without a need for that virtual existence to have any resemblance to reality. I'm not sure AI is really needed either as their are already millions of people that are artificially intelligent to fill that roll.
The thing about VR that people don't get is how good it will be. You will prefer it to the real world. And your AI "best friend" will be perfect. Not good, but perfect once it trains on you a little bit. Real people, every single one of whom is füçked up in some major way, can't compete. It's going to be really wild. Interesting times.
 

smurfslayer

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I expect that we'll make some improvements with batteries, but not to the point where it matches the power density of fuel. About 10 years from now, medias and those on the far left will turn on the EV market and start yelling about all the damage mining causes and all that. Some of the people who think the world is going to end will realize that the world has not ended after all...but the younger generation will believe them to be old fools.

At a previous employer, a problem tracking database was ‘upgraded’ to an iteration of a customized platform of a company that rhymes with McHale’s Horse. It didn’t just suck, it sucked HUGE. Bugs, lost functionality, inability to search the old databases etc. It was not well liked. Although certainly something I could be scoped to use, I rode out the lifecycle of that product and never used it a single time. Not to worry though, the same employer “upgraded” to a newer and alleged to be improved product from the same vendor and the implementation was a spectacular failure, the cutover was 3 months, the drop dead date came and the old database was dumped before the new one was fully functional. C/S chaos ensued. The word ‘disaster’ should have been redefined. The outage was 1-2 days. Reduced functionality on critical items lasted almost a month, the lost functionality on all other issues lasted about 15 months.

I am starting to think the smart purchaser will ‘skip’ the trendy “EV” releases and patiently await the next tech while rocking the trusty dino-powered vehicles. Because what if the promised battery tech breakthrough never comes? Then what? What if we never achieve more than 400 miles on a battery charge, while hypermiling in a stripped down econobox? History is replete with failures that had great promise.
 

WEJER

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Nope on a rebuild… LOVE our ICE trucks. Still don’t think the Lightning is there yet.

Now that Said… the purpose built Lucid luxury for the wife has been impressive. With multiple roundtrips of Tucson/Flagstaff on a single charge we got a little confidence in the Lucid. Just did non-stop Tucson/Dana Pt both ways on single charge with AC on high.

Best part was not paying silly demorat fuel prices in SoCal!
 

brodon

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I have a Tesla now and love it for what it is, but EVs have their time and place. They are not really a great solution to replace all ICE vehicles. California banning ICE vehicles in less than 15 years is absurd. I just read an article that implied there is not enough lithium in the world to supply batteries if all vehicles were electric. These tree huggers (we didn't buy the tesla for the environment, lol) don't seem to consider the enormous damage this mining does to the earth, but ignorance is bliss...
 
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