What do you think will happen with trade ins?

[goblues38]

trade ins usually get sent straight to auction. some dealers do pre owned sales, many do not. if they do, they tend to hold on to low milage cars that can be flipped easy.

high milage cars get auctioned to highest bidder. so dealers low ball trades so the can make a little money...like a $100.

most auctions are shut down now....so trade in game may have changed

 

[melvimbe]

They will keep dropping as the majority of people are so freaked out that they believe things will go right back into quarantine this Fall.

So through the summer...but assuming COVID stuff is over with, how long would it take to recover? I ask cuz I have a daughter that turns 14 in a month, that I plan on getting a vehicle for when she's 16. Wondering if it makes sense to buy something early and let it sit in the driveway. Doubt it...

 

[911 Crazy]

So through the summer...but assuming COVID stuff is over with, how long would it take to recover? I ask cuz I have a daughter that turns 14 in a month, that I plan on getting a vehicle for when she's 16. Wondering if it makes sense to buy something early and let it sit in the driveway. Doubt it...

There seems to be so many states who's governors do not want to reopen their economies that I think we will be in a real funk for at least a year.

 

[Don S]

I had a different experience. I had a 2016 GMC Canyon with Amp running boards and a Flipbak toneau cover. Checking NADA, it said it was worth $25K as a clean trade in. The dealer took $2K off the new Raptor and gave me the $25K for the Canyon. A week later, I drive past the dealer and they have my Canyon....all polished up, running on a rotisserie at the front of the dealership. Car sales may not be the best, but trucks always sell. My old Canyon will be a nice truck for someone, with only 28K miles.

 

[Traffic22]

There seems to be so many states who's governors do not want to reopen their economies that I think we will be in a real funk for at least a year.

I think you may be correct about this. If we use 2006-2011 as a guide, 2008 was the bottom and it took till 11 or so to get to pre 06 stock market numbers. (Roughly)

This was a faster slam to the bottom, and once business is back open, unemployment theoretically should drop faster than back then, but a lot of places are not going to make it out the back end of this, plus the trillions in debt we’ve accumulated in a short time.

Seems very plausible this could be a slow two to three year climb back.

During the 08 recession, used car market was very strong, new cars not so much. (Multiple auto maker bail outs.) But so hard to gauge with all the auctions closed. Not sure if there is pent up demand because of the lack of inventory moving, or the glut of used cars waiting to be sold will devalue the market. Really hard to tell at this point.


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[911 Crazy]

I think you may be correct about this. If we use 2006-2011 as a guide, 2008 was the bottom and it took till 11 or so to get to pre 06 stock market numbers. (Roughly)

This was a faster slam to the bottom, and once business is back open, unemployment theoretically should drop faster than back then, but a lot of places are not going to make it out the back end of this, plus the trillions in debt we’ve accumulated in a short time.

Seems very plausible this could be a slow two to three year climb back.

During the 08 recession, used car market was very strong, new cars not so much. (Multiple auto maker bail outs.) But so hard to gauge with all the auctions closed. Not sure if there is pent up demand because of the lack of inventory moving, or the glut of used cars waiting to be sold will devalue the market. Really hard to tell at this point.


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I think the car market, both new and used will be broken for some time. People are going to be hanging on to their $$$ longer in anticipation of round 2 happening. Only good I can see are the smart but super well off people starting to save. On the bad side, more and more of the lemmings with their hands out....just what the treasonists want!

 

[goblues38]

So through the summer...but assuming COVID stuff is over with, how long would it take to recover? I ask cuz I have a daughter that turns 14 in a month, that I plan on getting a vehicle for when she's 16. Wondering if it makes sense to buy something early and let it sit in the driveway. Doubt it...

Wait till she turns 15. Then get her permit as early as you can. Let her learn to drive in her car, then she will be very at ease taking the test, and you as parents will be comfortab;e knowing she knows how to drive her car, and wont hurt yours.

We got out daughter a VW GTI with a manual transmission. #1...it is a skill she needs to know. #2... didnt want her to ever be out and everyone is drinking and the only car is a manual nobody can drive......#3...very few high school parents think this way, so not many people will know how to drive her car

 

[RaptorAddict1]

I have been in the car business for 15 years and this is what I see happening...

Due to the plants being shut down and suppliers of parts being shut down there is going to be a shortage of new vehicles. Particularly trucks. This will push many consumers to the used market looking for late model vehicles. The increase in demand for these late model used vehicles will push the prices up. There is no way of telling when this will happen but I believe it to be this summer sometime. Obviously right now with all the uncertainty and the auctions being closed the prices of trade-ins and used vehicles have been dropping. But I believe once auctions get going again and things start opening back up you are going to see a scenario similar to what I described above. Just my two cents...and as a disclaimer I have been known to be dead wrong before... Anyone who tells you they have the car business figured out is lying to your face.

 

[Traffic22]

I have been in the car business for 15 years and this is what I see happening...

Due to the plants being shut down and suppliers of parts being shut down there is going to be a shortage of new vehicles. Particularly trucks. This will push many consumers to the used market looking for late model vehicles. The increase in demand for these late model used vehicles will push the prices up. There is no way of telling when this will happen but I believe it to be this summer sometime. Obviously right now with all the uncertainty and the auctions being closed the prices of trade-ins and used vehicles have been dropping. But I believe once auctions get going again and things start opening back up you are going to see a scenario similar to what I described above. Just my two cents...and as a disclaimer I have been known to be dead wrong before... Anyone who tells you they have the car business figured out is lying to your face.

Your guess is likely as good or more accurate than those of us speculating, and it certainly seems rooted in logic. The big difference this time is the plant shut downs. I totally forgot about that.