Sad to say but we may eventually see MSRP+ADM as MSRP from Ford. If they all eventually go to the special order business model and hold less inventory on lots they have no choice but to make up the lack of volume with higher MSRP. Wall street will not allow them to make less profit without some kind of backlash, I hope I'm wrong on this one but it's not looking good.
So if Ford moves to a more direct sales model, there is two ways to go. Option one is that a buyer still needs to order through a dealer. In that case, dealers will still need to compete with your business, but they no longer can use the immediate gratification angle to get you to buy immediately without much thought behind it. In the new model, every dealer would essentially be working from the same supply and so a dealer must win on price and customer service. Seems like a win for the customer...unless you need immediate gratification.
If there is no dealer middleman involved, then it's essentially the Tesla model. I suppose we can't really say if there price is inflated for ADM, but their prices are competitive with other vehicle MSRPs. So I'd say no.
I get that you're assuming that Ford volume of sales will decrease, but I don't know that that's the case. Again, Tesla sells more vehicles than it can make with this model, so why wouldn't Ford be able to sell this way. This may be the case 20-30 years ago, when people didn't have the trust for special orders, and needed/wanted to be able to do test drives and pick from a lot, but that's not quite the case anymore.