Ruby red on the ground

[bruin1md]

I just can't believe this craziness will continue for too long. Shake my head as I see dealers demanding these high ADMs on Raptors when there are $10K under MSRP deals for the TRX, and probably at least MSRP for the GMC Sierra AT4X.

I like the Raptor better than these other options, but not so much that I'd want to pay more than MSRP.

It won't continue for much longer.......... by the end of this year, things are going to look quite different, and more so by 2023.

 

[Azholley]

It won't continue for much longer.......... by the end of this year, things are going to look quite different, and more so by 2023.

Well ford stopped lightning reservations, stopped maverick orders and stopped bronco orders. Most dealers like mine won’t even take another raptor order for the rest of the year because they don’t think they’ll get more than 4…. Unfortunately things will most likely be far worse by year end. This is assuming that China doesn’t take over Taiwan and push things even further back. We are in this mess for a couple more years minimum.

 

[cmstric]

Well ford stopped lightning reservations, stopped maverick orders and stopped bronco orders. Most dealers like mine won’t even take another raptor order for the rest of the year because they don’t think they’ll get more than 4…. Unfortunately things will most likely be far worse by year end. This is assuming that China doesn’t take over Taiwan and push things even further back. We are in this mess for a couple more years minimum.

100% people who think gas prices will correct it are just wrong IMO. Im in manufacturing. We are completely maxed out and sold out for 13 months now. Usually only 3-4 weeks in normal times.

 

[shapiroeric]

It won't continue for much longer.......... by the end of this year, things are going to look quite different, and more so by 2023.

The current situation will take years to resolve....this isn't going away anytime soon

 

[bruin1md]

Even if supply chain issues continue, demand is going to go down as auto loan rates increase (it's already happening). As that happens and gas prices increase, I would be shocked if this current situation takes years to resolve. The economy is headed for a serious recession and I don't see people lining up to overpay for cars, but I guess time will tell.

A very smart finance guy I know who buys these loans is already seeing a serious downturn in the lending market. He sees a serious correction coming, but again, we will see. If he's right, many people will be underwater on the values of their vehicles in 1-3 years, which is his prediction.

 

[smurfslayer]

You’re only looking at the current scenario from the perspective of a consumer. If you were Ford and making the same observations, would you continue churning out the same number of vehicles?

It appears that Ford and I’m sure other manufacturers as well are chopping production in anticipation of both a slowdown, and the potential that they could have their manufacturing capacity usurped for a nat’l security emergency (war). They know they can’t supply enough electronics to the vehicles they’re capable of producing at reduced ’22 capacity and won’t be able to for the near future. The stealerships won’t be selling them as readily either because people who want, but don’t need new vehicles will be thinking twice about dropping large amounts of money on a depreciating asset.

I don’t know how long this lasts and nobody else does either. I want it to be over already.

 

[bruin1md]

You’re only looking at the current scenario from the perspective of a consumer. If you were Ford and making the same observations, would you continue churning out the same number of vehicles?

It appears that Ford and I’m sure other manufacturers as well are chopping production in anticipation of both a slowdown, and the potential that they could have their manufacturing capacity usurped for a nat’l security emergency (war). They know they can’t supply enough electronics to the vehicles they’re capable of producing at reduced ’22 capacity and won’t be able to for the near future. The stealerships won’t be selling them as readily either because people who want, but don’t need new vehicles will be thinking twice about dropping large amounts of money on a depreciating asset.

I don’t know how long this lasts and nobody else does either. I want it to be over already.

Fair points for sure............. I think it will be interesting to see how soon domestic chip production will start to take effect. There has been a lot of big talk, but not sure what if any action has taken place. Our govt has to be thinking hard about China feeling emboldened to invade Tawain and what that would mean. Having said, one take away from the immense backlash against Russia may be that China think twice about going forward.
Agree that no one really knows...........these are all just various theories based on information at hand and some recent change in trends (auto loans)

 

[Vader]

Let's revisit this tread in 12 months.

 

[smurfslayer]

I think it will be interesting to see how soon domestic chip production will start to take effect

yeah, so far it’s vaporware. even more so than the Raptor R

Our govt has to be thinking hard about China feeling emboldened to invade Tawain and what that would mean

You are giving our government far, far too much credit.

one take away from the immense backlash against Russia may be that China think twice about going forward.

I have different opinion. I believe that China doesn’t give a whit about backlash, as they’re the largest consumer economy on the planet. If they sanctioned us, who would be hurt worse, China, or US economy?

If China only traded with Russia, Iran and NoKo, they would get by just fine, where we on the other hand would have to revisit manufacturing which we’ve basically abandoned to super cheap Chicom labor.

Let's revisit this tread in 12 months.

deal.

 

[BaseRaptor]

Paying ADM on a vehicle would make a financial advisor cringe.

Paying ADM on a 1 model year old vehicle would make a financial advisor drop you as a client.