I think your final thought might be correct. I posted on Friday after visiting with a large dealer in Seattle. I said I saw the new 2023 inventory they had/were buying up from around lower 48 to have inventory to sell.
Ford blew it in for Q-1 sales in F150s. To appease the ‘villagers’, they pump out a few ‘random’ Raptors to various regions, states, dealer inventories and ours, ‘customer ordered’ orders-per Ford’s system. Seems interesting too that there are a surprising number of 37pp’s shipped out too…
I’m on the fence about just buying one of the new 23s and figure that I’ll get in line again for 2025 production-after the ‘villagers’ have had their way with Ford. (Recall Louis the 16th and a little revolution in France).
The lack of transparency from Ford is concerning. They have to know that this group of buyers that stand in line to place an order, then buy a $90-150,000 truck are educated buyers. To miss every production target in Q1 is huge. To start Q2 with your customer base looking for ‘pitch forks & pikes’ is automotive insanity. At some point, buyers will lose faith in the product, its quality, value at time of purchase and in the resale market.
As one guy said a few days ago, “The Covid years are gone”. So is the ppp money that bolstered sales in Raptors & Rolex’s.