Finally took the plunge. Bought a 2011 SCREW. We started seriously considering buying one last July, and have been strategizing since. I drove about 8 of them, looked at about 10, and got pretty fed-up with the dealer market around SLC, UT. They were either in reasonable condition with unreasonable pricing, or unreasonable condition with reasonable pricing.
For those who don't want to read the whole thing
When I seriously got to buying mode, I made a spreadsheet that allowed me to quickly compare trucks by ownership cost expressed monthly for the entire time I would own the truck. It factored in depreciation assuming I'd sell at 200k miles for $15k, insurance cost (most were the same, but 2017s were a little different), fuel cost (again 2017s won here), sales tax, title and license fees, and financing cost (I had xx to put down and planned to finance the rest at 48mos 2.74% with my credit union).
This was an awesome tool for me, I could just find a truck on KSL (the Western version of Craigslist) or eBay or a dealer, and plug it in to compare to the rest of the market. I found that a new truck would cost me (at MSRP with my options) $625 / month for the whole 11.3 years I'd own it, all in, averaged.
Knowing this, I could easily discount some local dealer cars like this 2014 with 87,500 miles that would cost me $737 / month! You're reading that right, that truck would cost you about $55/mo MORE than a 2017 Raptor.
I also leveraged a tool called KSLALERT for $5 / month that let me get notifications on my phone / watch whenever something hit the classifieds under "raptor" instantly, so I could immediately go in, plug their mileage into my spreadsheet, and kick out what kind of offer that would be around what I was finding would be about the best I could do. The "cheapest" truck I found was a 2012 with 67,500 miles for $34,990 at $558 / mo. That truck was not what I was looking for, had solid rust on the bottom of the rockers, bald tires, bashed in skid plates, completely scratched body panels, and a check-engine light.
I set my goal to get under $600 / month and just started throwing out offers. I offered every listing I saw whatever price gave me that ownership cost for the mileage. I'd call dealers selling a 2013 with 75k miles $34k. They ALL were telling me they had paid more than that, which was awesome info, because it saved me a lot of driving.
I ended up working with the ONLY private party seller I'd seen in the local (western US) listings. Long story short, we ended up at $33k for a loaded 2011 with 81,800 miles. That put me at $574 / month over the next 6.6 years. He had interestingly gotten most of his offers from dealerships offering up to our price.
I have a feeling the local market (spring maybe?) is being set by dealers who are trying to just bring people into the dealership. EVERY truck we drove was being taken home daily by the dealership owner, so I'm sure they weren't in a hurry to get them gone. Also, dealers were all telling me that at every auction the Raptors got WAY more action than other cars, which makes sense.
In the end, I have to eat my words. Back in July after the pricing for 2017s was released, in this thread I said, "So I'll wait until a guy can just walk in and buy this commodity at the store, whether it is a Raptor, or an Iphone, and the slow 95% market will realize that the old is now old, and I'll nab a cherry 45k mile 2012 next June for $29k." WOULDN'T THAT BE NICE, *******.
I'm happy to help anyone who's out there looking, I'll share my spreadsheet to help a brother out (goole sheets).
I appreciate all the help I've gotten from this forum, and I hope to be able to contribute as I move forward through this journey. I'm headed to Sand Hollow, in Southern, UT this weekend for a 4-day Easteraviganza. We'll see how it goes.
For those who don't want to read the whole thing
When I seriously got to buying mode, I made a spreadsheet that allowed me to quickly compare trucks by ownership cost expressed monthly for the entire time I would own the truck. It factored in depreciation assuming I'd sell at 200k miles for $15k, insurance cost (most were the same, but 2017s were a little different), fuel cost (again 2017s won here), sales tax, title and license fees, and financing cost (I had xx to put down and planned to finance the rest at 48mos 2.74% with my credit union).
This was an awesome tool for me, I could just find a truck on KSL (the Western version of Craigslist) or eBay or a dealer, and plug it in to compare to the rest of the market. I found that a new truck would cost me (at MSRP with my options) $625 / month for the whole 11.3 years I'd own it, all in, averaged.
Knowing this, I could easily discount some local dealer cars like this 2014 with 87,500 miles that would cost me $737 / month! You're reading that right, that truck would cost you about $55/mo MORE than a 2017 Raptor.
I also leveraged a tool called KSLALERT for $5 / month that let me get notifications on my phone / watch whenever something hit the classifieds under "raptor" instantly, so I could immediately go in, plug their mileage into my spreadsheet, and kick out what kind of offer that would be around what I was finding would be about the best I could do. The "cheapest" truck I found was a 2012 with 67,500 miles for $34,990 at $558 / mo. That truck was not what I was looking for, had solid rust on the bottom of the rockers, bald tires, bashed in skid plates, completely scratched body panels, and a check-engine light.
I set my goal to get under $600 / month and just started throwing out offers. I offered every listing I saw whatever price gave me that ownership cost for the mileage. I'd call dealers selling a 2013 with 75k miles $34k. They ALL were telling me they had paid more than that, which was awesome info, because it saved me a lot of driving.
I ended up working with the ONLY private party seller I'd seen in the local (western US) listings. Long story short, we ended up at $33k for a loaded 2011 with 81,800 miles. That put me at $574 / month over the next 6.6 years. He had interestingly gotten most of his offers from dealerships offering up to our price.
I have a feeling the local market (spring maybe?) is being set by dealers who are trying to just bring people into the dealership. EVERY truck we drove was being taken home daily by the dealership owner, so I'm sure they weren't in a hurry to get them gone. Also, dealers were all telling me that at every auction the Raptors got WAY more action than other cars, which makes sense.
In the end, I have to eat my words. Back in July after the pricing for 2017s was released, in this thread I said, "So I'll wait until a guy can just walk in and buy this commodity at the store, whether it is a Raptor, or an Iphone, and the slow 95% market will realize that the old is now old, and I'll nab a cherry 45k mile 2012 next June for $29k." WOULDN'T THAT BE NICE, *******.
I'm happy to help anyone who's out there looking, I'll share my spreadsheet to help a brother out (goole sheets).
I appreciate all the help I've gotten from this forum, and I hope to be able to contribute as I move forward through this journey. I'm headed to Sand Hollow, in Southern, UT this weekend for a 4-day Easteraviganza. We'll see how it goes.
